Wednesday, April 18, 2018

Facial Recognition Software Update by Juan Caruso

BACKGROUND 

Juan Caruso will continue as guest blogger until Vigilis returns with more substance ...

Escaped Prisoner Still at Large (about 8 hours ago)
Sindri Þór escaped a low-security prison yesterday, fleeing to Sweden by plane. He had been in custody from 2 February for his partaking in a robbery of 600 computers which were specially fitted for Bitcoin mining.

An international warrant has been issued for Sindri’s arrest, and Swedish police are involved in the search. Icelandic police have questioned several individuals, including Sindri’s wife, in an effort to ascertain his whereabouts. He is believed to have had help in escaping the prison and reaching Keflavík airport yesterday.




Slightly improved finally, wouldn't you say?

Submarines are always silent and strange.

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Tuesday, March 06, 2018

Submarine Humor Revisited

Background

It seems too long since any submarine pranks or humor have been featured in one of ME's posts.  So we hope readers find the following links (2) refreshingly entertaining.

FEATURED

# 1 - [NEW] Former Faslane Commodore Thompson commanded five nuclear submarines during his career, including HMS Revenge (S27).   As told in his new book, On Her Majesty's Nuclear Service, and in this recent article  (near bottom) he confesses to a submarine wardroom prank with a wildly unintentional result. 

# 2 - [OLDER] From a decade or so ago, this 4 minute YouTube production: "Das Tub"

Submarines are always silent and strange




 

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Saturday, February 17, 2018

Kim Jon Un's Unification Strategy --- Critical Flaws

Background

Trump's Strategy:  U.S. strategy has been to create enough internal strife in North Korea's poorly fed underclass to foment a coup by some disenchanted generals.  Spies, Agent provacateurs, and heating oil sanctions were in place and due to exacerbate the unpopularity of Kim's harsh treatment of his vital hard labor workers this winter.  

Kim's Delaying Tactics:  North Korea's co-participation in the Winter Olympics with its South Korean host brightened peasant morale in hopes of continued peace and brighter economic prospects of  re-unification. Continuing shipments of oil to the DPRK in violation of U.N. sanctions, also aassures much needed heating supplies for peasants merely trying to survive another winter.   

Kim appears to have averted a coup, at least this winter.

Kim's Longer Game

Reunification with South Korea:  Kim's sister Yo-jong extended an invitation last Saturday to South Korea's President Moon Jae-in for a two Koreas summit.  During the summit Kim may entice Moon with an offer to an offer to remove heavy artillery now aimed at the South, which would be very popular with the South's citizen's and businesses. In return, Moon would be asked to accept North Korean businesses in the South, and perhaps agree to get the U.S. out of the DMZ.

Suppose President Moon Jae-in leaves rejects Kim's proposals and departs the summit. Kim will publicize his offer and Moon's rejection--- not positive for Moon's electoral prospects.  Moreover, Moon could suddenly fall ill and die like Kim's step brother last year.
If Moon's replacement were more receptive to Kim's proposals he might also be more popular with South Koreans.

Kim's long term strategy is simply to survive and rule a unified Korea on a more prosperous footing to threaten the U.S. and its Asian allies.

Obvious Flaws in Kim's Longer Game

President Moon Jae-in well remembers Kim's capacity for homicide: North Korea's 'gruesome' murder of Kim's brother Kim Jong Nam in February 2017.  Why would Moon ever go to North Korea to ingest a slow-acting poison or a contract a fatal virus?

Without U.S. forces on the DMZ, the DMZ would not be viable, and Moon knows this.  All the more reason for any summit to be held in the DMZ under watchful eyes, ears and video.

Predictions

1- As Kim's PR strategy evaporates due to South Korea's reluctance, Kim must quickly restore his harsh reputation.  He will authorize publication of interim executions within the ranks of his military, as well as civilian for crimes like theft and murder (rather than for growing desertion attempts).  Time table: Probably before the end of 2018.

2- Kim's vaunted submarine fleet will experience accidents and disappearances due to growing age and maintenance issues.  Time table: whatever remains of Kim's life.

Submarines are always silent and strange.










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Saturday, February 10, 2018

Kim Jon Un Dictatorship Countdown: 5th Update (10 FEB 18)

Background (Trump's Watch Only):

14 May 2017, North Korea claimed it tested a "newly developed ballistic rocket" capable of carrying a large nuclear warhead. Early the next month the UN imposed a travel ban and asset freeze on four entities and 14 officials, including the head of North Korea's overseas spying operations'.

4 July, North Korea claimed it had carried out its first successful test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). By early August, the UN banned North Korean exports of raw materials (including coal) and limited foreign investments in the country.  Such sanctions aimed to eliminate about a third of Pyongyang $3 bn export economy.

3 September, North Korea said it had tested a hydrogen bomb that could be miniaturised and loaded on a long-range missile. Then, after a two- month pause, North Korea launched a Hwasong-15 ICBM missile in late November.  The next month the U.N. Security Council voted 15-0 in favor of tightened sanctions on the North to include:
 * Capping deliveriesof petrol products to 500,000 barrels a year, and crude oil at four million barrels a year, and
 * Restricting North Korea's vital source of foreign currency by:
   -Rrequiring N. Koreans working abroad to return home within 24 months.
   -Banning exports of certain N. Korean products, such as machinery and electrical equipment.

What has Trump's Strategy Been? 

Clearly, U.S. strategy has been to create internal strife in North Korea to foment an overthrow of Kim Jon Un's starvation regime.  Agent provacateurs and spies have been in place awaiting the accelerating hardships of winter cold on the huge peasant class. 

Trump's strategy was slowly working, so Kim's strategists pitched some brilliant, last-minute stymies to the Trumpl strategy. Kim finally bought into it, a little to late for the Olympics deadline, but even that was extended for the hope of world peace:
1- Subdue the winter's harsh impact by appealing to Russia, China and Germany, for example, to send heating oil on credit for emergency humanitarian relief.
2- Bolster the loyalty of North Korea's suffering peasants with news of their nation's participation in South Korea's Winter Olympics spectacle (ends Feb 25th), and DPRK will win several Olympic medals,again.
3- Encourage South Korea and the world to believe Kim is not a menace to peace, at all.  
4- Exploit a hopeful detente with the South by offering to remove a large part of its artillery corps in exchange for reciprocal arrangements to operate businesses in each other's countries.
5- Attempt to gradually Isolate the U.S. from world opinion regarding North Korea's sanction status.

Guessing the successes of #1-3, is easy: THEY WILL BE SUCCESSFUL. Whether or not #4 happens is uncertain at this point in time, due to possibilities of anticipated interim events.  PREDICTION:  If #4 happens, #5 is almost assured and allows the Kim regime a graceful way to survive for another year or provided Kim ceases missile testing and stops threatening the U.S. with nuclear destruction.


OUR COUNTDOWN UPDATE 

Our previous (October 10, 2017) update kept the Kim Dynasty at Stage 8 of Kim's trek toward his ultimate demise/disappearance.  Now that Kim seems to be winning, he bought himself two clicks in time, moving back to 10 on M.E.'s 0-12 scale  (12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 3, 1, 0). 

Submarines are always silent and strange.



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Monday, November 27, 2017

ARA San Juan Missing New Questions Raised

UPDATE #3 (15 DEC 17) -  

Could answer Molten Eagle's original question (1) below about why the Argentine sub was traveling SUBMERGED AFTER its battery fire AND SNORKLE CASUALTIES? We had even alluded to a the possibility of a classified mission. Prediction (5) below, is now worth repeating:  Something very secretive in nature is neither being discussed nor disclosed.

According to today's related report  Family member: Missing Argentinian sub was being 'chased' 
The sister's account, made public Wednesday, was immediately blasted by Argentinian military officials as "completely untrue." But Jessica Medina, whose brother Roberto Daniel Medina served aboard the sub, told Argentina's La Gaceta newspaper in an exclusive interview that she received the message on WhatsApp just days before the vessel vanished Nov. 15.

"It was that weird message in which he told us he was looking for a British helicopter and a Chilean ship, but unfortunately we did not continue with that conversation, he stayed there. That was the last message," she said. In his messages, the sister said her brother told her the ARA San Juan was sailing close to the Falklands -- referred to as Malvinas by Argentina -- on Nov 3

*********

Regardless of actual circumstances, Molten Eagle extends our heartfelt sympathies to families and friends of the latest 44 submariners to perish beneath the waves.

UPDATE #2 (4 DEC 17) -

According to today's related report Missing Argentine Sub's Crew Informed About Device's Failure in Sept
MOSCOW (Sputnik) — The crew of the missing Argentine submarine San Juan with 44 crew members on board reported in September [months before its loss] that the submarine's snorkel, a device which takes in air from the surface and ensures submerged operation, failed, causing water to enter into the vessel, the Clarin newspaper reported, citing the Argentine Navy report. [UNCONFIRMED]

However, according to the outlet, important parts were not flooded and the submarine was scheduled for repair works in 2018.

**************  MOLTEN EAGLE **************
If true, the above report underscores the relevance of our original questions (#1 and #2), why would ARA San Juan compound its difficulty (a very low after battery charge) with the attendant hazards of  sailing underwater? and was the diesel propulsion system out of commission after the snorkle flooded? However, an explosion quite renders question #3 (was the emegency blow system out of commission due to inadequate air pressure?) irrelevant.  Now that we know crewmember Rothlisberger was permitted to miss the sub's last departure after performing a series of tasks for his boss.  What, if any mechanical responsibilities did his boss have and such permission is rarely accorded unless the tasks have been so arduous that fatigue could undermine crew readiness. On the contrary could Rothlisberge's presence on the last trip have helped save the sub San Juan? A good journalist would at least ask probe glaring questions and perhaps obtain credible answers.

UPDATE #1 (4 DEC 17) -

According to a FOXNEWS  report 24 NOV 17 2 sailors didn't board missing Argentina submarine at the last minute

 At the very last minute, two sailors did not board the Argentinian submarine that has been lost in the South Atlantic [since 15 NOV].

For different reasons, Humberto Vilte and Adrián Rothlisberger did not board the submarine with the 44 other crew members, according to O Globo, a Brazilian newspaper.

Vilte was allowed to skip the mission after he learned that his mother had been hospitalized, O Globo reported. Rothlisberger was allowed
[to miss the trip after completing tasks] for his boss, according to O Globo. He avoided the trip in “a matter of seconds,” Sandra Álvares [his mother] said.

BACKGROUND

The submarine ARA (Armada de la República Argentina) San Juan (S-42) has been considered missing since 17 November, two days since it had been ordered back to its Mar del Plata base after reporting a water deluge through its snorkel short-circuited its forward battery and reportedly not heard from again.

The San Juan had only a seven-day oxygen supply when it lost contact, and a sudden noise was detected that the navy says could have been the implosion of the vessel. 
Navy spokesman Enrique Balbi told a news conference Monday as hope dwindled among some families of the 44-member crew, including Argentina's first female submariner, Operations Officer Lt. Eliana María Krawczyk

LATEST & GLARINGLY UNANSWERED

“They had to isolate the battery and continue to sail underwater toward Mar del Plata, using another battery,” Balbi said.

GLARING QUESTIONS 

(1)
Unless another casualty has not been disclosed (likely) or a classified mission was still underway (possible?) why would ARA San Juan compound its difficulty (a very low after battery charge) with the attendant hazards of  sailing underwater?  Its Siemens electric propulsion motor would have been less taxed for underwater propulsion, but leave scant battery power available for new emergency needs. Also in the heavy seas after November 15th, submarines roll, pitch and yaw like bouncing logs, submergence was for safety and comfort. Rescue teams from the Royal Navy reported 33 ft waves in the search area.

                                        (2)
Was the diesel propulsion system out of commission after the snorkle flooded? All the more reason to surface transit. If the snorkle valve system was badly damaged, submergence would have been a very poor choice.
                                        (3)
Was the emegency blow system out of commission (inadequate air pressure), as well?  Dead in the water is usually preferred to dead on the bottom.

                                        (4)
If a hostile presence was involved from which the San Juan sought to hide,  who was behind the hostile force? This seems very unlikely.

                                        (5)
Was there a battery explosion due to saltwater exposure to battery cells?  This looks likely.

*********
Something very secretive in nature is neither being discussed nor disclosed.

Submarines are always silent and strange.  

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Wednesday, November 08, 2017

Kim Jon Un Dictatorship 4th Update (8 NOV 17)

Background

Our Kim Dynasty countdown had remained at stage 8 on our 12-point scale since ME's 2nd delaration on September 28th. The political pressure on "The Little 'Rocket' Man" has been applied in a most embarassing fashion for him --- through  Today's Asian (The Manila Times) coverage of South Korean President Moon Jae-In's joint press conference with President Trump at the presidential Blue House in Seoul on November 7, 2017.

Consequently we move the 'Rocket Man' COUNTDOWN one step closer to zero at stage 7, the first shift in months (12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 3, 1, 0).

UPDATE

SKorea ‘in talks to buy nuclear submarine’ from US – reports
"SEOUL: South Korea is negotiating with the United States to buy nuclear-powered submarines to guard against threats from Pyongyang, local reports said Tuesday, as President Donald Trump said Seoul would buy 'billions of dollars' of US weapons.  ... After a summit in South Korea with his counterpart Moon Jae-In, Trump on Tuesday said Seoul would be buying a large amount of US weapons “whether it’s planes, whether it’s missiles, no matter what it is”.

“The strategic assets under discussion include a nuclear-powered submarine and a sophisticated surveillance asset,” the reports quoted a senior official of Moon’s office as saying. "We will have close consultations with the US about these two in the future,” the official was quoted as saying. 
****** 
Of course, China's envoys will tell DPRK generals that this is merely a Trump tactic to use a bargaining chip in negotiations with China which is entirely probable à la US-Taiwan arms deals. And whatever his generals hear from China, Kim will know and suspect his peasantry will hear. However, some DPRK's generals will have their doubts about how far Trump would go to arm South Korea. Since Kim must already expect defection among his top generals he will crack down (executions), which will make him appear more frightened than ever.  

Kim must continue to distract and befuddle his followers with domestic strife such as:

  •  assassination of an alleged Kim (no doubt accused of plotting a regime takeover)
  • executions of some token missile official who ineptly caused the delay in his pacific hydrogen bomb launch
  • capture and executions of a South Korean spy cell (spotters and informers are already in North Korea)
Any combination of more than one of the above actions within 6 months will move our countdown 2 points closer as it would relect Kim's desperation at perceived panic level.

Trump's provocations are not over. Their impact has been calculated to escalate gradually.
 
PREDICTIONS
Remember, the more agitated and desperate for food and heat the peasants become this winter, the sooner Rocket Man becomes the "Un" Kim Jong-un.  Kim's time is running out. Western news has been covertly getting in, and if Kim survives another 12 months he wins  -- becoming almost invincible in a non-nuclear chess strategy as a formidible future nuclear threat.  This will not happen; either an internal coup takes him out, or he will disappear from public view forever after an ostensible visit to China, a hospital, or a vacation retreat.  

Submarines are always silent and strange.

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Tuesday, October 10, 2017

Kim Jon Un Dictatorship Update

Background

Our Kim Dynasty countdown for last month had Rocket Man stumbling a stage closer to his nonexistence/disappearance and the end of the Kim dynasty at Stage 8. on M.E.'s 0-12 scale  (12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 3, 1, 0).

OUR UPDATE

We no longer believe the Kim dynasty must necessarily end with Kim Jong-un's approaching disappearance. So for the moment Rocket Man is still at stage 8, but adding further desperation to the pressures being deftly racheted up by the U.S., its allies and the mainstream media are unsettling news for the Rocket Man. If  his reactive behavior pattern continues, as his military and North Korea's people have been assured, he will reach a point of no return in raising the ante of any continuing military credibility.  That, as his family has always been keenly aware is very bad for the confidence of his fawning generals much less his oppressed people.  
If Kim fails to do so now, he must distract his own followers with some domestic strife such as:
  • assassination of an alleged Kim (no doubt accused of plotting a regime takeover)
  • executions of some token missile official who ineptly caused the delay in his pacific hydrogen bomb launch 
  • capture and executions of a South Korean spy cell (spotters and informers are already in North Korea)
Any combination of more than one of the above actions within 6 months will move our countdown 2 points as it would relect desperation at a panic level.

And finally, because Submarines are always silent and strange and their serious deployments or whereabouts are routinely unannounced, Kim just had more external pressure heaped upon his threatened hydrogen bomb launch:

10 OCT 17 | "The USS Michigan [SSGN-727], a nuclear-powered American submarine, will reportedly arrive in the South Korean port of Busan this weekend amid the ongoing escalation of tensions on the Korean Peninsula, which resulted from Pyongyang's recent nuclear tests and the subsequent war of words between North Korea's leader and US President Trump. 

Following the submarine, the USS Ronald Reagan
[CVN-76] aircraft carrier will also be dispatched to South Korea next week, Chosun Ilbo newspaper reported. "


The Chosun Ilbo is one of the major newspapers in South Korea. With a daily circulation of more than 1,800,000. 



  

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